I hate to be a Debbie Downer, you guys, but we're not out of the water yet. On the plus side, Mets fans on Fangraphs hate me because yesterday I wrote this:

I suppose we shouldn’t have been surprised by reports that the New York Mets are going after Rod Barajas. Though most fans and observers alike acknowledged that the Mets’ greatest needs were in their tattered starting rotation, Omar Minaya has focused the bulk of his attention on his second-string catching corps, signing Henry Blanco, Chris Coste, and Shawn Riggans, and retaining Omir Santos, September callup Josh Thole, and farmhand Robinson Cancel.

Of course, it kind of makes sense that Minaya doesn’t think that any one of those six is a starting catcher. But he spent much of the offseason pursuing Bengie Molina, whom no one would mistake for Gabby Hartnett. Molina was the Mets’ second-highest free agent priority behind only Jason Bay, and after Molina jilted them a month ago, they remained unable to think of any other position on the diamond. Despite the number of backup catchers the organization already possesses — and the paucity of reliable batterymates in the starting rotation — the Mets still seem to be focused on finding 162 games worth of backstops.

More at Fangraphs...

On the minus side, Jair Jurrjens's shoulder is still barking. He says that he's maybe a week or two from being able to throw, and his shoulder still feels tight and stiff. The MRI showed no structural damage, just inflammation, and Jurrjens described the doctor's diagnosis: "The doctor said that's the most beautiful MRI he ever saw in his life. Everything is intact and nothing is wrong in there. I'm happy with that."

Of course, the thing about an MRI is that you wouldn't get one if everything was okay. "The most beautiful MRI he ever saw" is a great line, because it's kind of an oxymoron: it was an attempt to figure out why in the world Jurrjens's shoulder is hurting, and one that revealed no good answer. His shoulder is still hurting, after all.

So keep your fingers crossed, but don't hold your breath.

Update: "MRI results showed that he isn't dealing with any structural damage in his right shoulder." Breathe a small sigh of relief, but not a big one, guys. Rafael Soriano showed us all that MRIs aren't the final word on injury. Jair still needs to be monitored closely and shut down the second he shows any kind of discomfort. (By the way, Rob Neyer linked to this post yesterday, saying "I'm roughly 90 percent in agreeance with Remington here.")

Original post: Jair Jurrjens is having an MRI on his shoulder, as you've heard by now. Shoulder soreness is bad; there are few things worse for a pitcher. The MLB.com story mentions that he felt a tired arm in 2008, after throwing 40 more innings that year than he ever had before (and thereby qualifying himself as a candidate for the Verducci Effect). In 2009, he pitched 215 innings, 26 2/3 more than in 2008.

Was he abused?

On a pitch-by-pitch basis, no. Jurrjens had six starts with more than 110 pitches last year, after only three such in 2008. On the other hand, this wasn't preferential treatment. Derek Lowe also had six starts of more than 110 pitches, and Javier Vazquez had 10. (Kawakami had two, and Tommy Hanson had just one.) In his 34 starts, which tied Lowe for the team lead, Jurrjens averaged 97.1 pitches a start and 15.3 pitches an inning -- while Lowe averaged 94.4 pitches a start but 16.5 an inning, Hanson averaged 94.4 pitches a start and 15.5 an inning, and Vazquez averaged 103.5 pitches a start and 15.1 pitches an inning. So he wasn't killed on a per-start basis. But all of those starts added up, and his 3305 pitches were second on the team, just behind Javy Vazquez's 3315, and 10th in the National League. (Both were far beyond league leader Adam Wainwright, who had 3614, or major league leader Justin Verlander, who had 3937, more than 300 more than runner-up Felix Hernandez.)

Then again, 215 innings seems like a lot for a 23-year old. And it is. Jurrjens is one of only 24 pitchers in the last 20 years to have a 215-inning season by his 23rd birthday. (Mark Buehrle, Ramon Martinez, and Steve Avery each had more than one.) As you might imagine with any group of precocious young pitchers, the vast majority of them got injured or flamed out by their 30th birthday. Two of them are headed to the Hall of Fame: John Smoltz and Mike Mussina. Several are still in their prime: Buehrle, Javy Vazquez, Felix Hernandez, Matt Cain, the rejuvenated Ryan Dempster. A few are still active but close to ruined by injuries or ineffectiveness: Dontrelle Willis, Ben Sheets, Fausto Carmona, Sidney Ponson, and the perhaps-retired Mark Mulder. Of the rest, a few of them pitched meaningful innings into their 30s: Andy Benes (done by 34), Brad Radke (done by 33), Matt Morris (done by 33),and Livan Hernandez (somehow still around, at 34). The others were all more or less done by the end of their 20s.

Remember, young pitcher attrition is extreme. So Jair's got the odds stacked against him. Does that mean that the Braves were wrong to let Jair Jurrjens pitch 215 innings? Maybe, but 215 isn't actually a very high number when you consider that it's an average of fewer than 6 1/3 innings per each of his 34 starts. It might have been best if they could have shut him down during the stretch run, but he was the team's second-best pitcher, and they couldn't afford to lose him -- and even then, they weren't overly reckless with his pitch count, as he stayed at or under 100 pitches for five of his last seven starts despite never pitching fewer than 7 innings.

The hell of it is that there isn't much the Braves could have done to prevent this. Arm problems for young pitchers are all but inevitable. All we can do now is cross our fingers and hope.

Two nice things. First of all, Tom Glavine finally did what we all hoped he'd do: he retired and came back to the Braves organization, joining our front office. He's a very smart guy who also seems to have personal integrity, and during his long tenure as a Player's Association representative he undoubtedly made a lot of front office contacts and learned a lot about the business of baseball. I couldn't be happier to have him back with the organization for the long haul. He was my first favorite player, you know?

Then, John Sickels did an incredibly detailed and very complimentary writeup of the Braves' most prominent pitching prospects at Rome and Myrtle Beach, which you really just need to go read. The money line comes at the end:

Overall, the A-ball level looks very impressive in terms of pitching depth for the Braves. And these are just the obvious names that show up on prospect lists; there are other organization arms that could slot in, too. The bottom line is that both Myrtle Beach and Rome should have pitching staffs composed entirely of pitchers with major league potential, without much filler fodder.

UPDATE 2: O'Brien changes his original report, now saying the Braves' offer is closer to $4.5 million total.  He doesn't think that's enough to get a deal done, but he says it's a strong first offer.  Tyler Kepner of the New York Times tweets that the offer is $2 million plus $2 million deferred, which is close to the Yankees' final offer.

UPDATE: O'Brien now adds that the Braves' offer is "believed to be worth at least $5 million, although some of that would be deferred."

It's been awhile since we've seen anything resembling a "real" rumor regarding the Braves, but today we've definitely got something on our hands.  Mark Bowman of MLB.com and David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution are both reporting that the Braves have made a one-year contract offer to free-agent left fielder Johnny Damon.  O'Brien characterizes the offer as "initial," says that the Braves' interest is "increased" and that they've even had Chipper Jones make a recruiting call of sorts to Damon.  Bowman's source adds that at least some of the money is deferred.  O'Brien (who has a pretty good connection with Scott Boras) tells us that Boras and Damon are still holding out for a two-year offer.

I remain 100% in support of a move to add outfield quality and depth by signing Damon, especially if some of the money involved is deferred.  I'd even be willing to make a two-year offer, worth perhaps $8 million total--again assuming deferral of some of the salary.  Even if Damon doesn't repeat his 2009 season (which he won't, given his age and his move out of NuYankee Stadium), he'll still likely be an offensive asset.  He can lead off and allow Nate McLouth to hit lower in the order.  Baseball Prospectus even projects him to be a neutral defender in the outfield; even if he's a negative, he'll be an improvement on Garret Anderson out there.  Have no fear that Jason Heyward will get his chance at stardom, with or without Damon.  I see the downside as minimal, and the upside as extremely significant.

Earlier this week I was lucky enough to spend some time with the number one prospect in Major League Baseball, Jason Heyward.  He and I are both involved with L.E.A.D., an amazing organization in Atlanta that is bringing baseball to the inner-city in a new and innovative way.  In the past, I've had the pleasure of volunteering with his mother, who is simply delightful.  I knew before I ever spoke with Jason that he was an outstanding young man because of his hands-on involvement with L.E.A.D. and the wonderful upbringing he had with such terrific parents.

I wasn't disappointed in anything I observed about Jason Heyward up close and personal earlier this week.  I was lucky enough to get to sit in on his session in the batting cage, and I was struck by his professional demeanor.  While he carried on conversations with other players outside of the cage, he was completely focused inside the cage.  It was impossible to watch and not notice how seriously he took this opportunity to hit in the cage and get instruction.

I observed several things about Heyward's routine in the cage.  In a round of soft toss I noticed that he was lifting his back leg up and bending at the knee when he swung.  Later, I asked hitting instructor, CJ Stewart, why Jason was picking up his back leg during soft toss.  CJ explained that this was part of a drill Heyward learned years ago that teaches the importance of shifting your weight during your swing from the back to front leg.  As a pitching instructor who makes my easily-embarrassed teenage girls stand on one leg for the "flamingo drill," this is going to make for a great example.  Even Jason Heyward, the number one prospect in Minor League Baseball, goes back to drills to improve his game.  Take notes, girls!

Another thing I noticed was that Heyward talked to himself in the later rounds.  He'd call out a situation as he got in his stance, like "runner on second," and then he'd say something like, "That'll work!" after the contact if he thought he hit the ball like he wanted.  I also noted that he took the time to get in his stance before each pitch and both his stance and his swing remained consistent through all of the rounds he took in the cage. 

If you haven't already heard, Heyward has a beautiful swing.  And  if you haven't heard, you probably shouldn't call yourself a baseball fan because it's impossible to escape the talk of this rising talent.  His stature and the full follow-through on his swings most reminds me of Fred McGriff, who I've heard him compared to more than once.  It makes me excited to be a Braves fan.

For me, the only thing better than a top prospect who is reminiscent of Fred McGriff is one who is also a great role model for young fans.  Heyward is all that and more.  The first time I met him was in early November at a luncheon for L.E.A.D.  I've been to events in the past when sports figures or celebrities slipped in just before they took the podium and slipped back out immediately after they spoke.  It seems to happen more often than not, but it's not what happened when Jason Heyward came to the L.E.A.D. luncheon.  I saw him pose for dozens of pictures with people and spend time talking to some of the young athletes who participate in L.E.A.D.  His speech was all about giving back and getting involved, and after observing him I don't doubt that he will continue to be an integral part of L.E.A.D. throughout the years. 

The second time I saw Jason was the day following the luncheon when he participated in the celebrity clinic L.E.A.D. put on for inner-city youth.  Jason was there from start to finish, along with his parents and brother who were also extraordinarily kind and generous people. 

Going into my third encounter with Jason this week, I wanted to respect him while he worked in the cage, but I was also dying to talk to him about some of the subjects in my book.  I waited until he was done batting and then asked if he'd mind a couple of questions.  It wasn't at all an interview but just a fun chat with someone else who loves the game of baseball.  He was incredibly generous with his time and knowledgeable about the inner-workings of the business of baseball.  It was truly a pleasure to talk to him.

With the natural talent that he has so well refined through his hard work, Jason Heyward is sure to be an impactful addition to the Braves lineup.  More than that though, he's a terrific role model for all the young fans.  You may not agree that sports figures should be role models, but the bottom line is that they are and so often they forget the little guys out there watching them with hopeful eyes.  Jason Heyward is someone all Braves fans, young or old, will be proud to claim as our own.

So, a big thank you to Jason Heyward and CJ Stewart for letting me have a front row seat outside the cage, and a special thanks to Jason for letting me pick his brain on boring things like revenue sharing!  Also, thanks to Dexter Fowler, Jay Austin, Scott Robinson and Telvin Nash for letting me watch their sessions in the cage as well!  It was an afternoon any baseball fan would love to have!

David O'Brien's latest blog post quotes part of a long interview that Javy Lopez did with Atlanta Baseball Talk.

Here's the important part, as transcribed by O'Brien (it comes at around 40:30):

Lopez was then asked flatly if players were looking at steroids as an option and using them.

“Uh, yes,” he said. “In my opinion, yes…. I mean, how can I explain this? It’s like if you’re going to race cars, if you’re going to race a car and some people are using nitro in the fuel [Lopez laughed], and you see them winning all the time, and you’re using regular gas – you know what? If they’re using nitro and they’ve been winning, well, I’d be stupid enough not to use nitro, too.”

Look, everyone's innocent until proven guilty. But people have been whispering about Javy since his career year in 2003, when he hit 43 home runs in just 129 games and batted .328/.378/.687. I'm not trying to indict him on circumstantial evidence... but it's not hard to see what he's saying. He's saying that when everyone's using, you have to use too. And it doesn't seem like a stretch to imagine that he's actually talking about himself.

You're probably aware that our old friend Rany Jazayerli has occasional differences of opinion with the Royals brain trust regarding their management of the team. Yet despite Rany's years of torment, the team still manages to surprise him. Just two days ago, he noticed a quote by an unnamed team official who was expressing shock that the 2009 season went as badly as it did:

Everybody thought we had the greatest offseason in the history of whatever and people in the game were saying we did as good as anybody in improving the team.

Which... yeah. Wow.

After dropping his jaw for several paragraphs, Rany finally responds to it:

I could criticize this quote from now till kingdom come, but really, this quote transcends criticism. It is a masterpiece of hallucinatory thinking. I’m convinced the secret to cold fusion is locked somewhere inside that quote. So the only proper response is not criticism – it is mockery.

Rany then challenged his readers to invent other historical situations to which this meme could be applied -- including France in World War II, the makers of Heaven's Gate, and the advisers to Martha Coakley's losing Senate campaign in Massachusetts -- and I thought that our corner of the blogosphere should contribute.

The producers of "The Magic Hour" with Magic Johnson, 1998: Everybody thought we had the greatest talk show in the history of whatever and people in the business were saying we did as good as anybody in hiring a talk show host.

Nikita Khrushchev, 1962: Everybody thought we had the greatest missiles in the history of whatever and people in the Kremlin were saying we did as good as anybody in picking a country to put them in.

Atlanta, 1864: Everybody thought we had the greatest wooden buildings in the history of whatever and people in the Confederacy were saying we did as good as anybody at making them fireproof.

Your turn!

Bill Shanks of Scout.com has a report from the Braves' Caravan in Macon today, where he quotes assistant general manager Bruce Manno on the possibility of the Braves signing free-agent left fielder Johnny Damon: "Never say never."  Shanks points out the similarity between Damon's situation and that of Garret Anderson last winter.  Both are Scott Boras clients.  Anderson signed with the Braves last year on February 22, at a $9.5 million pay cut from his 2008 salary.  Shanks also has a pretty good article on why the Braves need to sign Damon.  Though I don't agree with him on all his points, his point #1 is enough for me: Damon makes the lineup significantly better.  I'm holding out hope.

So, like, there's less than nothing going on. I really would love it if the Braves got Johnny Damon -- because I really would love it if they kept Heyward on the farm for a couple more months, to get in his licks against pitchers with secondary pitches and keep his arbitration clock stopped. But I would be shocked if they did. It's February, which means their pennies are more or less counted, and Damon's already balked at 1 year, $6 million from the Yanks. I doubt that we'd be able to offer him much more than Garret Anderson money. His bat would look very nice in our lineup, provided that he doesn't remember how old he is, but I just don't believe we're gonna get him. (Apparently, we haven't spoken to Scott Boras about Damon in a month and a half, but those kind of rumors are about as unreliable as it gets, especially when Boras is involved.)

Sucks, though.

One piece of good news: it looks like the leader of the Pakistan Taliban is dead.